Simbe Index: Back-to-school
Back-to-school
Simbe Index
Shelves were more impacted in 2025 than 2024
The Simbe Index tracks what happens on store shelves when shopper demand peaks: what runs out, how fast stores recover, and what it signals for the next season. The Simbe Index is powered by over 45 billion shelf images captured globally.
What Shelves are Telling Us
In 2024, out-of-stocks fell as the season progressed. In 2025, they rose week after week, leaving shoppers with more empty shelves as the season went on.
Three Forces Drove the Shift
Tariffs thinned inventory
Categories most exposed to imports felt the pressure first. Apparel tariffs doubled, creating leaner safety stock.
Shoppers bought earlier
In 2025, 74% of back-to-school shoppers started buying earlier because of tariffs, according to NRF.
Restocking couldn’t keep pace
Stores restocked just 38% of empty shelves in early July, compared to 46% in 2024.
Every Department Ended August 2025 Worse Than 2024
Where the Trends Showed Up:
Sports & Outdoor
Saw the biggest year-over-year shift, with outdoor recreation gear above 7% out of stock every week.
Tech
Held the line on laptops and headphones, but networking gear out-of-stocks increased 33%.
Clothing
Was led by shoes, where out-of-stocks rose 17%.
Weekday meals
Suffered most in breakfast categories, with out-of-stocks up 11%.
Office & Craft
Ran shortest on pens & pencils, with out-of-stocks up 53%.
Looking Ahead to 2026
2026’s back-to-school season has already started, even as tariffs, inflation, and broader economic pressure shape how families shop.
Retailers can best prepare for early demand by monitoring apparel, footwear, and electronics as early indicators.
Want to Know More?
Listen to Omni Talk’s Five Insightful Minutes for a deeper dive on the data, and what it means for the 2026 back-to-school season.
